Range shifts of Eastern South American mangroves in a changing climate

As climate changes, habitat suitability for multiple taxa are also expected to change. In recent years, mangrove latitudinal range expansion has been linked to increasing temperatures and reduced freezing in temperate regions, happening mainly through encroachment into saltmarshes. The range limit of mangrove forests in Eastern South America has not seen drastic changes in the last four decades, despite trends of increased temperature and the seemingly favorable direction of the Brazilian Current. Here, we investigate if and how the distribution of South-Atlantic mangrove forests may respond to different scenarios of climate change. To do this, we combine ecological niche modelling with propagule dispersal simulations to understand the roles of climate and ocean currents in defining the austral limits of South-Atlantic American mangroves. Our results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature strongly constrains habitat suitability beyond the current distribution of mangroves (28°28’68” S), while dispersal processes heavily limit propagule stranding beyond 35° S. The Brazil–Malvinas currents confluence zone creates steep temperature gradients and an oceanographic barrier that makes the latitudinal expansion of mangroves unlikely in this region, even in future scenarios of heating climate. We found no evidence of current nor future poleward expansion of mangroves, but total mangrove area has increased in Brazil over the last decades, likely due to landward migration, but anthropogenic interference and urban expansion may restrict this process, leading to coastal squeeze. Under scenarios where both landward and poleward migration are limited, South American mangroves may face increasing vulnerability, with potential impacts on the several ecological, biogeochemical and social cycles they support. Our results contribute to leading hypotheses of climate restriction and shed light on the role of ocean currents in South America, helping to explain why the poleward expansion reported in other regions has not yet been observed in the South-Atlantic mangrove range limit.