Data Driven Stochastic Model for Detecting Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a critical neurological disorder that causes the brain to shrink and leads to the eventual death of brain cells, adversely affecting a person’s ability to function. AD is a fast-growing disease in the United States and was the fifth leading cause of death among Americans 65 years of age or older in 2023. In the United States, 6.9 million people aged 65 or older were diagnosed with AD, along with a high rate of undiagnosed patients. Thus, the objective of our study is to develop a real data-driven predictive model to identify a patient with AD based on eight risk factors: Age, Gender, ADAS-Cog13, Entorhinal, Fusiform, Intracranial Volume (ICV), Amyloid-Beta, and Tau Protein, with a high degree of accuracy. The quality of the model was evaluated using well-established and sophisticated statistical measures: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and K-fold cross-validation. If a patient is given information on the above risk factors, our proposed binary logistic regression model can classify the patient as having AD or not with at least 98% accuracy.