Health and Economic Benefits of Air Quality Improvements in France through Net-Zero Transition Scenarios by 2050

Background

Climate mitigation policies just with air quality improvements can deliver substantial co-benefits through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutant concentrations. Mitigation strategies range from sufficiency to technology-driven transitions, yet linked co-benefits remain poorly understood. This study evaluates PM _2.5 and NO ₂ exposure changes and associated co-benefits using France’s energy-transition scenarios.

Methods

Emission projections were incorporated to the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model to estimate PM _2.5 and NO ₂ concentrations for 2030 and 2050. Health impacts were assessed using disease-specific cessation-lag assumptions relative to 2019, covering premature mortality, morbidity, DALYs, and economic benefits across nine outcomes (hypertension, lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, type-2 diabetes, acute lower respiratory infections, and asthma in children and adults).

Findings

Population exposure in continental France is projected to decline by 23% and 45% for PM _2.5 and NO ₂ by 2030, rising to 40% and 70% by 2050. Health gains are substantial and broadly consistent across all four scenarios, with modest differences between sufficiency-oriented and technology-driven pathways. Under delayed-impact assumptions, which accounts for the latency between exposure reduction and health response, avoided premature deaths reached 8,800-9,300 for PM _2.5 and 11,000-12,800 for NO ₂ in 2030, rising to 21,300-22,100 and 24,500-26,200 by 2050. Avoided morbidity cases grew from 51,100–55,200 in 2030 to 84,000-87,800 by 2050, with total DALYs averted increasing from 278,000-310,000 to 427,000-450,000 over the same period. Economic benefits scaled accordingly, direct medical cost savings reached €1.0-1.1 billion/year by 2050, with intangible cost savings of €41-43 billion with PM _2.5 and €36-39 billion with NO ₂ reductions.

Conclusion

Net-zero transition delivers substantial, progressive health and economic co-benefits that are robust across diverse policy pathways. Rather than sectoral composition, commitment to decarbonisation itself drives air quality improvements and population health gains. These findings support integrating co-benefits into climate policy frameworks to strengthen the evidence base for ambitious mitigation action.

Highlights

• Net-zero policies can deliver large air-quality co-benefits; here, chemistry-transport modeling coupled with emission projections quantifies these benefits across four contrasting French decarbonisation pathways for 2030 and 2050.

• Health and economic co-benefits are large and robust across all four contrasting scenarios, with modest differences between sufficiency-oriented and technology-driven pathways.

• By 2050, PM _2.5 and NO ₂ concentrations decline by 38-40% and 70-75%, averting 20,000-22,000 and 24,500-26,200 attributable premature deaths annually.

• Avoided morbidity reaches 84,000-87,800 cases/year and DALYs averted reach 427,000-450,000/year in 2050, growing substantially from 2030 estimates.

• Monetization of health impacts results in, direct medical savings of €1 billion/year in 2050 and intangible cost savings of €43 billion (PM _2.5 ) and €38 billion (NO ₂ ) per year.