Identification of a Fractional Model for an Outbreak of the Dengue Fever

This work focuses on the global and partial identification problem for fractional differential equations. We provide a general numerical procedure based on global and local optimization algorithms with two refinements for biological systems that ensure solution positivity and homogeneous parameter units. The method is applied to a new fractional model of Dengue outbreak called the Fractional Homogeneous Nishiura (FHN) model, calibrated using data of newly infected people in Cape Verde.

We show that our identification method yields a better fit between data and model solutions than previous approaches and that our FHN model captures the dynamics of Dengue more closely than existing systems.