Exclusion of fire and grazing does not reduce annual grass invasion in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem

Disturbance is widely recognized as a catalyst of invasion, but growing evidence suggests even protected communities are susceptible to severe infestation. We used kīpukas—naturally isolated patches of minimally-disturbed vegetation surrounded by lava flows—as a large-scale natural experiment to test the long-term biotic resistance of protected sagebrush ecosystems threatened by Bromus tectorum and other invasive annual grasses. Employing a robust causal inference approach combining matching with regression adjustment, we compared protected communities within kīpukas to otherwise similar communities exposed to contemporary disturbance regimes. Despite their near-total protection from fire and livestock grazing, kīpukas were extensively invaded by annual grasses (18.9 ± 0.28% cover), with abundance comparable to or slightly exceeding disturbed sites (16.7 ± 0.29% cover). These findings challenge the notion that protection from disturbance confers effective long-term resistance to invasion, instead demonstrating that invaders can establish, proliferate, and drive ecosystem transformation where favorable abiotic conditions prevail. Our findings reveal the limits of passive protection as a conservation strategy, suggesting active management may be necessary to prevent ecosystem degradation by aggressive invaders.