Who infected the reported cases? Evidence from 678,482 COVID-19 cases with identified infector collected in routine surveillance in the Netherlands, 2020-2022
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
Background
During infectious disease outbreaks, characteristics of reported cases are routinely collected. These give information on becoming infected but not on infecting others. We assess whether linking infectees to infectors, together with their characteristics, can help understand transmission.
Methods
From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands, reported cases were asked to identify their most probable infector in routine surveillance, enabling the linking of cases. We assess for the period 27 February 2020 – 11 April 2022 whether the infectees of these transmission pairs are representative of all reported cases, whether the transmission pairs yield verifiable estimates of epidemiological characteristics (here the serial interval), and whether they provide information on transmission that cannot be obtained otherwise.
Results
Of 8,003,008 reported cases, 678,482 (8.5%) could be linked to their most probable infector. These infectees were largely representative of the reported cases regarding age group, sex, and geographical location. The mean serial interval of 3.6 days (sd 3.4 days) from transmission pairs aligns with literature. Transmissions between age groups largely follow known contact patterns. Most transmissions in September 2021 occurred between persons who were not (fully) vaccinated, indicating the effectiveness of the vaccine, and relatively few between persons with different vaccination status, indicating assortative mixing in vaccination status.
Conclusion
Transmission pairs can be efficiently collected in routine surveillance, providing insight into disease transmission. The current post-pandemic period provides an excellent opportunity to adjust reporting systems for linking infectees to their most probable infector as preparation for future outbreaks.
