Burden, Long-Term Trends, and Projections of Spinal Fractures in China in the Context of G20 Member Countries, 1990 – 2050: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study

Spinal fractures are an important contributor to disability worldwide, particularly in aging populations. However, comprehensive long-term comparisons between China and other major economies remain limited.

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed temporal trends in the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of spinal fractures in China and the overall G20 from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rates were assessed using Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort analysis. Future burden through 2050 was projected using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling, and decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contributions of demographic and epidemiological factors.

Between 1990 and 2021, China experienced substantial increases in absolute burden. Incident cases increased by 52.27%, prevalent cases by 113.66%, and YLDs by 107.21%. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR) increased significantly, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed a non-significant upward trend. In contrast, the overall G20 aggregate showed increasing absolute case numbers but significantly declining age-standardized rates. Age–period–cohort and age-specific analyses indicated that older adults represented the main burden-bearing population. Projections suggested that China’s ASIR may decline by 2050, whereas prevalence and YLD burden, particularly among males, may remain relatively high compared with the overall G20 level. Decomposition analysis identified population aging as the major driver of burden growth.

China experienced a rising burden of spinal fractures over the past three decades, in contrast to declining age-standardized trends in the overall G20 aggregate. These findings highlight the substantial role of population aging in shaping spinal fracture burden and provide epidemiological evidence for prevention planning and aging-related health policy.