Procalcitonin Adds Limited Incremental Value to a Simple Bedside Score for Predicting Complicated Appendicitis: A Temporal Validation Study
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Background
Complicated appendicitis (CA) increases morbidity and resource use.[1,2] In the emergency setting, risk stratification must rely on rapidly available data. Procalcitonin (PCT) is frequently obtained, but its incremental value beyond basic preoperative indicators remains uncertain.[5] We aimed to quantify PCT’s incremental predictive value and develop a practical bedside score with temporal validation.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of consecutive laparoscopic appendectomy patients (January 2023–December 2024). CA was defined by postoperative pathology (gangrene/necrosis, perforation, or peri-appendiceal inflammation/abscess; worst-category rule). We compared a base logistic model (age, WBC, neutrophil percentage, fever, symptom-to-surgery interval, shock index) with an extended model adding log-transformed PCT. Discrimination (AUC) and calibration were assessed. Temporal validation used 2023 for development and 2024 for testing. We also created a simple bedside score using pre-specified cutoffs and evaluated CA risk across score strata in 2024.
Results
In the overall complete-case cohort (n=1,792), 397 patients (22.2%) had CA. Adding PCT modestly improved discrimination in the full cohort (AUC 0.673 to 0.685). For temporal validation, 2023 included 870 patients (CA 26.9%) and 2024 included 921 patients (CA 17.7%); one otherwise eligible patient lacked a usable admission year. In the 2024 test set, discrimination was 0.662 (base) vs 0.673 (base+PCT) with a non-significant AUC difference (DeLong p=0.116); calibration slopes were near 1.0. A 7-item bedside score stratified 2024 CA risk: 9.1% (score 0– 1), 14.7% (2–3), and 34.2% (⩾ 4). Using ⩾ 4 points identified a higher-risk subgroup (PPV 34.2%, NPV 87.5%, sensitivity 46.0%, specificity 81.0%).
Conclusions
PCT adds modest predictive information beyond simple preoperative indicators in the full cohort, but temporal validation suggests that this incremental gain is smaller and not statistically significant in later patients. A pragmatic bedside score can support CA risk stratification and prioritization in emergency care, whereas the role of routine PCT testing may be best reserved for selected situations in which uncertainty remains after initial assessment.
