Linking land‑use change, water quality, and host-parasite dynamics with droplet digital PCR and Bayesian path analyses

Global changes in land use and nutrient cycling are transforming ecosystems at unprecedented rates, with significant consequences for infectious disease dynamics. Aquatic environments are particularly vulnerable because the interplay of habitat modification, nutrient enrichment, and biodiversity loss can drive pronounced changes in the community composition of food webs, including hosts and parasites. Yet, despite well-documented effects of habitat modification on aquatic communities and food webs, the mechanisms through which these changes influence infectious disease dynamics remain poorly resolved. This gap arises, in part, because it remains challenging to disentangle how multiple stressors interact to shape disease outcomes and quantify parasite levels and host densities from field-collected samples. Here, we illustrate two tools that might help address these challenges. First, highly sensitive droplet digital PCR can quantify infection loads even when the signal:noise ratio is low. Second, stepwise Bayesian path analyses can identify the direct and indirect pathways connecting land-use changes to infectious disease dynamics. As a case study, we examined cyclopoid copepods and their helminth parasite, Schistocephalus solidus, across 47 freshwater lakes on Vancouver Island, a region strongly shaped by commercial logging, including widespread clear-cutting of old-growth forests. Our results reveal a positive correlation between copepod density and deforestation, potentially mediated by associated changes in water quality and calanoid copepods, key competitors of the focal host. ddPCR enabled sensitive detection of extremely low parasite signals in field-collected copepods. We detected positive infections in only 19.5% of the lakes surveyed, highlighting the difficulty of assessing disease dynamics in natural populations. Nonetheless, this study highlights the challenges of linking land-use change to disease outcomes, while also demonstrating that sensitive molecular and statistical tools offer new ways to reveal these hidden connections.