DynoSys 2.0: Graph-Based Modeling of Dynamic Risk States and System Transitions in Human Behaviours Development

Human behavioral and mental health outcomes arise from interactions among genetic, environmental, and neurobiological systems. Existing frameworks often model these components jointly, but many treat variables independently or use static representations. This limits their ability to capture system-level dynamics and changes over time. To address this, we developed DynoSys, a unified framework that integrates these signals using three layers: predictive models, relationship exploration models, and mechanism-oriented explanation models. Building on this framework, we introduce DynoSys 2.0, a graph-based temporal modeling approach inspired by the free-energy principle by Karl Friston. In this framework, each individual is represented as a dynamic graph that evolves over time. We hypothesize that healthy development and adverse mental health outcomes correspond to different system states and trajectories.

Using longitudinal data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, we construct time-indexed graphs that integrate polygenic risk scores (PRS), multi-domain environmental features, and neuroimaging-derived representations. We study six phenotypes: externalizing behavior, internalizing behavior, and sub-stance use initiation (alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, and any substance). In these graphs, nodes represent domain-level features, and edges capture relationships derived from data-driven feature selection and temporal dependencies. We model graph evolution using recurrent neural networks and graph-temporal learning methods. We also define system-level measures, including graph energy and state transitions, to quantify dynamic patterns. Our results show that DynoSys 2.0 can model behavioral development using longitudinal multi-domain data. The framework achieved meaningful prediction for both continuous behavioral symptoms and substance-use initiation outcomes, but performance differed by outcome type. Externalizing behavior was predicted more accurately than internalizing behavior, and alcohol and any substance initiation showed stronger prediction than cannabis and nicotine initiation. Graph-derived energy measures showed clearer separation for high-versus low-symptom externalizing and internalizing groups, suggesting that continuous behavioral symptoms may be linked to different latent system states over time. Overall, DynoSys 2.0 provides a flexible framework for studying behavioral risk as a dynamic developmental process, while rare-event prediction and detailed graph-level interpretation require further work.