Epizootic tipping points: Environmental viral feedbacks predict amphibian die-offs

Virulent pathogens commonly circulate in wildlife populations without causing mass mortality; the triggers of die-offs remain poorly understood. Prevailing frameworks emphasize individual host susceptibility, yet experimental manipulations of susceptibility factors often fail to predict population-level outcomes. We tracked ranavirus epizootics across 40 wood frog breeding ponds over three years, comparing lagged viral state variables against abiotic and host predictors at each epizootic stage. Lagged viral state—environmental DNA concentration and infection prevalence—outperformed abiotic and host predictors of transmission, intensification, and viral accumulation. Infected hosts shed virus into the water column throughout epizootics, but the reciprocal pathway, environmental virus driving new and more severe infections, activated only at the transition to die-off, consistent with a self-reinforcing feedback. The rate of viral accumulation discriminated die-offs, while no static pond or host feature was predictive, reframing mass mortality as an emergent property of pathogen accumulation in shared environments rather than of individual host susceptibility.