An extended SEIARD model for COVID-19 vaccination in Mexico: analysis and forecast

  1. Ángel G. C. Pérez
  2. David A. Oluyori

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Abstract

In this study, we propose and analyse an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_c$ of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when $\mathcal{R}_c<1$ and unstable when $\mathcal{R}_c>1$, and we provide a sufficient condition for its global stability. Furthermore, we perform numerical simulations using the reported data of COVID-19 infections and vaccination in Mexico to study the impact of different vaccination, transmission and efficacy rates on the dynamics of the disease.

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  1. Version published to 10.5206/mase/14233
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.04.06.21255039v2 on medRxiv
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.06.21255039: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2021.04.06.21255039v1 on medRxiv