Monitoring and Analysis of Land Cover Change Dynamics in Bahr Al-Najaf (Iraq) using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Classification (2002–2025)

This study utilizes multi-temporal remote sensing images and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze and document significant land cover changes in the Bahr Al-Najaf depression, Najaf Governorate, Iraq, over a 23-year period (2002–2025)1.A systematic methodology was employed, featuring the use of Landsat series (TM, ETM+, OLI/TIRS). Following rigorous preprocessing for radiometric and geometric consistency 3, the images were subjected to supervised classification using the robust Random Forest algorithm4. The primary land cover classes analyzed include shallow water, deep water, dry soil, wet soil, and buildings. The post-classification comparison method was applied across multiple time intervals (e.g., 2002 vs. 2015, 2023 vs. 2025) to quantify the dynamics of change. The results were validated with field visits to document classification accuracy and identify water sources.The findings reveal a highly dynamic environment, marked by severe fluctuations in water bodies. The study documents periods of significant drought and water scarcity, particularly noting the near-disappearance of shallow water and increased dry land presence by 2015. This decline is attributed to reduced rainfall, excessive groundwater depletion from random drilling, and high evaporation rates exacerbated by temperatures reaching 50 ⁰ C. Conversely, the analysis also notes an expansion in water area between 2003 and 2023, considered the largest in decades. Furthermore, there has been an evident increase in anthropogenic changes, specifically the growth of built-up areas (buildings), driven by agricultural and tourism projects, which has led to waterlogging, deterioration of vegetation cover, and potential conflict with efforts to establish the area as a nature reserve. Continuous monitoring is essential for controlling the fate of this biologically and ecologically vital area.