Relationship between temperature and relative humidity on initial spread of COVID-19 cases and related deaths in Brazil
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Abstract
Introduction: Climate conditions may influence the transmission of COVID-19. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the initial phase of the epidemic in Brazil. Methodology: An ecological study based on secondary data was conducted. Daily data on new COVID-19 cases, deaths, and climate indicators were collected from February 20 to April 18, 2020 (n = 59 days) for all state capital cities in Brazil and the Federal District (Brasília). The climate indicators included mean temperature, temperature amplitude, mean relative humidity, relative humidity amplitude, and percentage of days with mean relative humidity ≤ 65 %. Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were performed for all cities and stratified by quintiles of the COVID-19 incidence rate. Results: The mean daily temperature was positively correlated with the number of days until the first COVID-19 case was reported. A lower mean relative humidity was correlated with a lower number of cases and deaths in Brazil, especially when the relative humidity was ≤ 65 %. Higher temperatures and humidity amplitudes were correlated with lower COVID-19 mortality. Additionally, after controlling for humidity, cumulative cases of COVID-19 were inversely associated with temperature in cities with mean temperatures less than 25.8 °C. Conclusions: Variations in temperature and humidity across the Brazilian territory may have influenced the spread of the novel coronavirus during the initial phase of the epidemic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.26.21268421: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:First, as an ecological study, it has limitations in establishing causal relationships, as the association observed on an aggregate level does not necessarily represent the association that exists at an individual level. However, ecologic analysis may be …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.26.21268421: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:First, as an ecological study, it has limitations in establishing causal relationships, as the association observed on an aggregate level does not necessarily represent the association that exists at an individual level. However, ecologic analysis may be more appropriate than studies using individual data when investigating the determinants of transmission of infectious diseases with complex and nonlinear infection spread [43]. Second, we did not include ultraviolet radiation in the analyses, although recent studies provide that ultraviolet radiation is associated with incidence rates of COVID 19 [44,45]. Third, it was not our goal to assess other determinants for the spread and mortality of COVID-19, such as social distancing strategies, health system structure, medical resources, people’s endurance, and personal hygiene. These aspects should be examined in future studies. Fourth, we sought to explore data for all Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District from February 20th to April 18th, 2020. However, we could not obtain the meteorological data for Porto Velho, capital of Rondônia State. Finally, further investigations in the countryside cities of Brazil should be explored if a novel epidemic spread occurs. Replication of this investigation might lead to more conclusive results using data from the end of winter, especially for cities located in the southern region of the country.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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