Impact of Vaccination and Testing Levels on the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Cessation

  1. Igor Nesteruk
  2. Oleksii Rodionov

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Abstract

A simple statistical analysis of the accumulated and daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita was performed with the use of recent datasets for European and some other countries and regions in order to find correlations with the testing and vaccination levels. It was shown that vaccination can significantly reduce the likelihood of deaths. However, existing vaccines do not prevent new infections. It looks that vaccinated individuals can spread the infection as intensely as unvaccinated ones and it is too early to lift quarantine restrictions in Europe and most other countries. The constant appearance of new cases due to re-infection increases the likelihood of new coronavirus strains, including very dangerous. As existing vaccines are not able to prevent this, it remains to increase the number of tests per registered case. If the critical value of the tests per case ratio (around 520) is exceeded, one can hope to stop the occurrence of new cases.

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  1. Version published to 10.37871/jbres1361
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.20.21263823: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.09.20.21263823v1 on medRxiv