Long-Term Changes in Groundwater Levels in the Białowieża Forest, Poland, Under Climate Change

Groundwater is the primary water source for ecosystems, and so changes in groundwater levels, if directional and constant, can cause changes in vegetation and habitat characters. In Białowieża National Park, a significant decline in the water table was observed at the beginning of the 20th century. The question therefore arose as to whether the changes that occurred at that time were permanent. A second question was whether the negative trend would continue so clearly in the following years. The study is based on measurements from 1985 to 2005 and 2022 to 2023 taken in the same monitoring wells. Complete data were collected from 21 monitoring wells. An analysis of groundwater levels between 1985 and 2005 showed an average decline of 0.08 m/10 years in swamp habitats, 0.11 m/10 years in moist habitats, and 0.21 m/10 years in fresh habitats. The measurements in 2022 and 2023 showed that the trend of falling water levels had slowed down in almost the entire study area, with water levels in recent years being similar to those at the beginning of the century. This was also confirmed by comparing years with similar precipitation: 2022 with 1986, and 2002, 2004, and 2023 with 1999. This was due to the higher precipitation after 2005. In the period of 2006–2023, precipitation in the hydrological years was on average 60 mm higher than in the period of 1985–2005. Despite the clear trend toward rising air temperatures, the higher precipitation compensated for the higher evapotranspiration. However, one area showed a systematic decrease in water levels. This occurred at the watershed of the two largest rivers in the Białowieża Forest. The findings indicate that watershed areas are most vulnerable to lowering the groundwater level due to climatic warming.