Quantifying Baseflow Changes Due to Irrigation Expansion Using SWAT+gwflow

Baseflow, the portion of streamflow sustained by groundwater discharge, is crucial for maintaining river ecosystems. Irrigation practices could influence baseflow, with varying impacts depending on the irrigation practices. This study evaluates the impact of irrigation expansion on baseflows, accounting for weather-driven irrigation demand. The SWAT+gwflow model was applied to the San Antonio Catchment (225 km2) in Uruguay, a region dominated by intensive horticulture and citrus farming reliant on groundwater. Irrigation expansion involves extending irrigated areas from 6193 to 8561 hectares, increasing average groundwater use by 18.4%. Model projections over 25 years indicate up to 1.2 m of annual groundwater depletion, including severe local reductions in monthly baseflow during dry years. Limitations have been discussed and compared with applications in other regions. These results have implications for water management, as current regulations ignore groundwater–surface water interactions and fail to account for variable irrigation water demand in high variable weather conditions. This approach provides a tool to anticipate the environmental effects of irrigation expansion and supports the development of adaptive regulations that better align with hydrological realities.