Trends, Patterns, and Persistence of Rainfall, Streamflow, and Flooded Area in the Upper Paraguay Basin (Brazil)

The Pantanal, considered the world’s largest floodplain, exhibits hydrological and ecological dynamics that are intrinsically linked to water inflows from the surrounding highlands. While the impacts of large-scale climatic phenomena and land-use changes on hydrological variables within the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB) are acknowledged, their combined effects remain unknown. Recent reductions in precipitation and river discharge have adversely affected both environmental and socioeconomic aspects of the Cerrado (Brazilian Savannah) and Pantanal biomes in Brazil, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of these important ecosystems. This study analyzes a 37-year hydrological time series (1986–2023) of rainfall, streamflow, and flooded area in three contributing basins of the Pantanal (Jauru—JB; Taquari—TB; and Miranda—MB), and reveals distinct hydrological trends influenced by different climate systems. Significant decreasing trends in rainfall and streamflow were observed in the northern JB and TB, contrasted by increasing trends in the southern MB. Consequently, a declining trend in downstream flooded areas within the Pantanal floodplain was identified. Long-term memory processes (Hurst phenomena) were identified in the time series of the Pantanal flooded area and also in the Paraguay river stage data. These findings indicate a persistent and aggregated reduction in the Pantanal’s hydrologic variables, adversely affecting its water-dependent ecology and economic activities, such as ranching, fishing, and navigation. This study underscores the necessity of adaptative management strategies to tackle the impacts of water surface loss, increased fire risks, and climate variability in the UPRB.