Target Trial Emulation of the Modified Vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic Vaccine for Pre-Exposure Mpox Prevention in At-Risk Populations

Background: The MVA-BN vaccine is considered effective for preventing mpox in key populations, based on observational studies, though no randomized trials have yet confirmed its effectiveness. Observational studies published to date rely on retrospective analyses of routine data, often missing information on relevant risk factors for mpox. Methods: Multi-country target trial emulation study with prospective data collection. Between 1 September 2022 and 15 June 2023, we recruited individuals eligible for mpox vaccination based on clinical history and exposure behaviors via healthcare centers and social venues in Spain, Peru, Panama, and Chile. Vaccinated individuals were paired with unvaccinated counterparts matched by mpox risk factors, country, recruitment date, and age. Follow-up continued via periodic surveys until 31 March 2024. The primary endpoint was symptomatic mpox occurrence ≥14 days post-vaccination. Results: The primary analysis included 1028 individuals (514 vaccinated, 514 unvaccinated) with a median follow-up time of 9.3 months (IQR 4.7–13.7). Mpox occurred in eight participants (0.8%): three vaccinated and five unvaccinated (HR 0.6; 95% CI 0.21–1.70). Adverse reactions were reported by 731 (49.6%) participants, predominantly skin reactions (703/1475; 47.7%), while systemic reactions occurred in 107 (7.3%). Long-lasting erythema at the injection site was reported in 450/1058 (42.5%) participants, persisting >6 months in 107 of them (23.8%). Conclusions: The low incidence of mpox during the study period resulted in a limited number of endpoint events, precluding robust conclusions on the efficacy of the MVA-BN vaccine as pre-exposure prevention for mpox. However, our analysis, which accounted for key confounders such as exposure behaviors, yielded results consistent with previous studies suggesting the effectiveness of the vaccine in the mpox setting.