Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022

  1. Rapeepong Suphanchaimat
  2. Pard Teekasap
  3. Natthaprang Nittayasoot
  4. Mathudara Phaiyarom
  5. Nisachol Cetthakrikul

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Abstract

Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population.

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  1. Version published to 10.3390/vaccines10071024
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.24.477479: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    We used Microsoft Excel and Stella 2.0 (number: 251-401-786-859) for model execution.
    Microsoft Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This study is subject to some limitations. First, we did not account for the granular difference in the transmission rate of the Omicron variant across provinces. Moreover, we did not consider the impact of localized interventions. Second, we postulated a constant proportion of severe cases over the course of analysis. This may not be the case as the case fatality rate or the proportion of patients encountering severe conditions may increase during the period of high strain of healthcare facilities. Third, the analysis was surrounded by numerous uncertainties of the assumptions and the parameters. Knowledge of the Omicron variant, both in virology or public health, is yet to be confirmed. Last, like in many other modelling studies, we de-constructed the force of epidemic into various components, including contact rate, immunization rate, and vaccine effectiveness, to identify public health implications. However, we realized that it is extremely difficult to disentangle the biological characteristics of the virus from the social interventions or exactly ascribe the epidemic phenomenon to a particular determinant. An obvious example is the R, which is not a biological constant of a pathogen as it is also influenced by many other determinants, such as environmental conditions and behaviors of the infectees. Thus, interpretation of the results should be made with caution.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No funding statement was detected.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2022.01.24.477479v1 on bioRxiv