Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting and Mitigation Pathways of Typical Hydrogen Production Routes in Shanxi Province

Against the backdrop of China’s dual carbon goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), hydrogen energy has emerged as a key strategic priority for Shanxi’s energy transformation. Understanding the carbon emission characteristics and mitigation potential of typical hydrogen production routes is essential for guiding the low-carbon development of the local hydrogen industry. This study applies a unified life cycle assessment (LCA) framework to evaluate five representative hydrogen production routes in Shanxi. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the robustness of the results. The results show marked differences in carbon intensity across routes: large-scale integrated coal gasification hydrogen production (LICGHP, 10.02 kg CO2e/kg-H2) > commercial coal gasification hydrogen production (CCGHP, 9.35 kg CO2e/kg-H2) > photovoltaic hydrogen production (PHP, 6.17 kg CO2e/kg-H2) > coke oven gas hydrogen production (COGHP, 3.83 kg CO2e/kg-H2) > wind power hydrogen production (WPHP, 1.57 kg CO2e/kg-H2). For coal-based routes, emissions are concentrated in the operational phase, whereas for renewable routes, emissions are concentrated in the construction phase with near-zero emissions during operation. COGHP (61.78% mitigation rate) serves as an effective transitional pathway, and WPHP (84.33% mitigation rate) represents the best low-carbon option. Mitigation strategies vary by route: coal-based routes prioritize CCS and process optimization, while renewable energy routes focus on supply chain decarbonization and green construction. These findings offer scientific support for Shanxi’s hydrogen energy technology selection and low-carbon strategy formulation.