Ecological Modernization, Perceived Policy Effectiveness, and Environmental Behavior: Evidence from Turkey’s Plastic Bag Charge

This study examines the associations among perceived policy effectiveness, emotional environmental engagement, and environmental behavior in the context of the plastic bag charge policy in Turkey. While market-based environmental policies are typically explained in terms of economic incentives, the ways in which policy perceptions and emotional processes are associated with individual behavior remain underexplored in the literature. The data were collected through a nationwide survey in Turkey (n = 515), and the proposed model was tested using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The measurement model shows good fit (CFI = 0.94; TLI = 0.92; RMSEA = 0.05; SRMR = 0.04). The findings indicate that perceived policy effectiveness is positively and significantly associated with emotional environmental engagement (β = 0.56, p < 0.001). Emotional engagement is also strongly associated with environmental behavior (β = 0.62, p < 0.001). The direct association between perceived policy effectiveness and environmental behavior is weaker but remains significant (β = 0.21, p < 0.01). Bootstrap analysis (5000 resamples) indicates a significant indirect association (β = 0.35; 95% CI [0.21, 0.49]), suggesting that emotional environmental engagement represents an important explanatory dimension linking perceived policy effectiveness and environmental behavior. Given the cross-sectional and self-reported nature of the data, these findings should be interpreted as associative rather than strictly causal. Nevertheless, the results suggest that the relationship between policy perceptions and environmental behavior is more consistent with a framework in which emotional processes are jointly involved, rather than a purely economic explanation. By examining perceived policy effectiveness, emotional environmental engagement, and environmental behavior within a single analytical framework, this study provides an integrated empirical account of how market-based environmental policies are associated with individual-level environmental behavior.