Measuring the Economic Impact of the Irish Bioeconomy: A Nowcasting Approach

Bioeconomy policy requires timely, economy-wide evidence; however, two persistent measurement constraints remain: official input–output (IO) tables are published with time lags, novel start-up and novel prospective or hybrid bio-based activities are rarely identified as separate sectors in national accounts. This study develops an applied framework that combines IO nowcasting with an accounting-consistent sector-embedding procedure under limited data availability. Using Ireland’s national IO system and an existing bioeconomy IO framework as the accounting backbone, we update the 2015 table to 2022 through calibration to macroeconomic control totals, providing a timely structural baseline. We then introduce a transparent method for constructing new bioeconomy sectors based on dominant input shares, import intensity, and output allocation, while preserving national accounting identities. The approach is demonstrated for aquaculture systems, anaerobic digestion scenarios, and plant-based protein value chains. Demand-driven Leontief multipliers reveal heterogeneity in domestic propagation effects across activities and development stages. The framework offers a resource-efficient and replicable tool for evaluating bioeconomy strategies under real-world data constraints. The paper finds that the bioeconomy is structurally heterogeneous rather than a single uniform sector. Aquaculture is strongly transport- and service-linked, anaerobic digestion is more manufacturing-oriented, and plant-based protein production combines agricultural and industrial inputs while showing relatively high import dependence.