A Conceptual Decision-Support Agent-Based Framework for Evacuation Planning Under Compound Hazards

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Abstract

Evacuation planning is increasingly challenged by compound hazards in which interacting threats degrade infrastructure, influence human behavior, and destabilize transportation systems. Although agent-based models and dynamic traffic simulations have advanced substantially, much of the evacuation literature remains hazard-specific, case-bound, or difficult to transfer across regions. In parallel, transportation resilience research shows that multi-hazard effects are often non-additive and that cascading infrastructure failures can amplify disruption beyond directly affected areas, raising important sustainability concerns related to community safety, infrastructure continuity, social equity, and long-term planning capacity. These realities motivate the development of evacuation modeling frameworks that are modular, adaptable, and capable of representing co-evolving behavioral and network processes under compound hazard conditions. This review synthesizes advances in evacuation agent-based modeling, dynamic traffic assignment, hazard-induced network degradation, and compound disaster research to propose an adaptable compound-hazard evacuation framework integrating three interdependent layers: hazard processes, transportation network dynamics, and agent decision-making. The proposed framework is organized around four principles: (1) modular hazard representation, (2) decoupling behavioral decision logic from hazard physics, (3) dynamic network state evolution, and (4) neighborhood-scale performance metrics. To support sustainable and equitable local planning, the framework prioritizes spatially resolved outputs, including neighborhood clearance time, isolation probability, accessibility loss, and shelter demand imbalance. By emphasizing modularity, configurability, and policy-relevant metrics, this review connects methodological advances in evacuation modeling to the broader sustainability goals of resilient infrastructure systems, inclusive disaster risk reduction, and locally informed emergency planning.

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