Determinants of Tropical Hardwood Lumber Exports to the ITTO Market: Econometric Evidence and Strategic Pathways for Sustainable Development in Producing Regions

This study investigates the structural and cyclical determinants of tropical hardwood exports among member countries of the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) over the period 1995–2022—a sector historically characterized by persistent value imbalances. The central research issue addresses the enduring asymmetries in the global value chain, shaped by unequal industrial capacities, limited access to environmental certifications, and entrenched North–South trade relations. The study pursues three main objectives: (1) to develop a typology of exporting countries; (2) to estimate heterogeneous trade elasticities; (3) to propose a policy framework that reconciles equity with sustainability. The empirical findings identify four export profiles: (i) raw producers with minimal local processing; (ii) marginal players with weak trade integration; (iii) high-value-added re-export platforms (notably in Asia); (iv) major consumer markets. Trade effects vary across regions. In the short term, imports boost exports (+0.33%), particularly in re-export models seen in Asia, the USA, and the EU, while local production remains limited in Africa due to weak industrial capacity. In the long term, both domestic production and imports have a positive impact (+0.38% and +0.37%), but only countries with strong industrial bases fully benefit. Population size (+1.29%) also reinforces the advantage of large markets like China and India, supported by short-term economic growth elasticity (+1.1%), likely driven by improved logistics or rising demand from importing countries. In response, the policy implications converge around the proposal of a “Fair and Digital Timber Trade Model” (F&DTTT), structured around three pillars: (a) specialized economic zones aligned with SDGs 8, 12, and 15; (b) blockchain-based traceability systems to enhance supply chain transparency; (c) South–South cooperation strategies aimed at commercial, regulatory, and institutional rebalancing, including potential cartelization initiatives among Southern countries. Supported by a robust methodological framework, this study provides a forward-looking pathway for transforming the tropical timber trade into a vector of equity and sustainability.