Can New Quality Productivity Promote the Carbon Emission Performance—Empirical Evidence from China

New quality productivity (NQP) has the possibility to enhance carbon emission performance which will fortify the groundwork for long-term economic expansion even further. The research examines the panel data of 30 provinces spanning the years 2012 to 2022 for an evaluation framework for NQP and carbon emission performance at the provincial level. Employing fixed effect models, mediation effect analysis, and spatial econometrics, the study explores the effect of NQP on carbon emission performance, its mediating mechanisms, and the spatial spillover effects. The findings indicate that (1) NQP significantly lowers carbon emissions for every unit of GDP and enhances carbon emission performance, and the result holds up when the instrumental variable methods are used. (2) The NQP had a significant contribution to improving carbon emission performance via advancements in green innovation. (3) The NQP does more than directly enhance the regional carbon emission performance; in contrast, it additionally positively influences the carbon emission performance level of the adjacent regions by the spatial spillover effect. (4) The impact of NQP on carbon emission performance is particularly pronounced in eastern and innovative regions. On this basis, we should vigorously develop the NQP, strengthen cross-regional policy coordination, and promote green and sustainable development.