A Macroeconomic SIR Model for COVID-19

  1. Erhan Bayraktar
  2. Asaf Cohen
  3. April Nellis

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns highlight the close and delicate relationship between a country’s public health and economic health. Models that combine macroeconomic factors with traditional epidemic dynamics to calculate the impacts of a disease outbreak are therefore extremely useful for policymakers seeking to evaluate the best course of action in such a crisis. We developed a macroeconomic SIR model that considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and the indirect externalities of lockdowns. It is formulated as an exit time control problem where a social planner is able to prescribe separate levels of the lockdown low-risk and high-risk portions of the adult population. The model predicts that by considering the possibility of reaching herd immunity, high-risk individuals are able to leave lockdown sooner than in models where herd immunity is not considered. Additionally, a behavior-dependent transmission rate (which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels) can lower both output loss and total mortality. Overall, the model-determined optimal lockdown strategy, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, is able to reduce total mortality to one-third of the model-predicted no-lockdown level of mortality.

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  1. Version published to 10.3390/math9161901
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.22.20137711: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.22.20137711v1 on medRxiv