A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
From 7 November 2020, Greece adopted a second nationwide lockdown policy to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the first took place from 23 March to 4 May 2020), just as the second wave of COVID-19 was advancing, as did other European countries. To secure the full benefits of mass vaccination, which started in early January 2021, it is of utmost importance to complement it with mid-term non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The objective was to minimize human losses and to limit social and economic costs. In this paper a two-phase stochastic dynamic network compartmental model (a pre-vaccination SEIR until 15 February 2021 and a post-vaccination SVEIR from 15 February 2021 to 30 June 2021) is developed. Three scenarios are assessed for the first phase: (a) A baseline scenario, which lifts the national lockdown and all NPIs in January 2021; (b) a “semi-lockdown” scenario with school opening, partial retail sector operation, universal mask wearing, and social distancing/teleworking in January 2021; and (c) a “rolling lockdown” scenario combining a partial lifting of measures in January 2021 followed by a third nationwide lockdown in February 2021. In the second phase three scenarios with different vaccination rates are assessed. Publicly available data along with some first results of the SHARE COVID-19 survey conducted in Greece are used as input. The results regarding the first phase indicate that the “semi-lockdown” scenario clearly outperforms the third lockdown scenario (5.7% less expected fatalities); the second phase is extremely sensitive on the availability of sufficient vaccine supplies and high vaccination rates.
Article activity feed
-
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.07.21249394: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The analysis performed has several limitations. The lack of baseline pre-epidemic contact networks’ data implies that certain parameters’ values can only be guessed at. Even using SHARE COVID-19 July 2020 survey answers of the over 50 population, a recall bias might exist, albeit unclear as to direction. Additionally, the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.07.21249394: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The analysis performed has several limitations. The lack of baseline pre-epidemic contact networks’ data implies that certain parameters’ values can only be guessed at. Even using SHARE COVID-19 July 2020 survey answers of the over 50 population, a recall bias might exist, albeit unclear as to direction. Additionally, the mass vaccination period raises many issues that are still not known: The vaccination prioritization is a very complex problem to solve. The vaccines that are gradually becoming available have different attributes, different administration schemes and different efficacies, varying from 62% to 94%. Finally, though a form must be filled by the individual before vaccination, this is unlikely to provide all the necessary information; vaccinators will be, for instance, to a large extent unaware of the susceptible/infectious status of all the asymptomatic individuals arriving at the vaccination system and it is certain that there will be a quantity of vaccines wasted per period.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
