Estimation of the Excess COVID-19 Cases in Seoul, South Korea by the Students Arriving from China
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Abstract
Background: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from China, a country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has arrived in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in the Korean home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods: To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students from China, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and performed a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results: Under the home-quarantine program, the number of the infected individuals would reach 40–72 from 12 March–24 March with the arrival of 0.2% of pre-infectious individuals. Furthermore, the number of isolated individuals would peak at 40–64 from 13 March–27 March in Seoul, South Korea. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics by the international student from China were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. Conclusions: To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine of the individuals from countries with the virus risk are warranted along with other containment policies.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.15.20023234: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study had several limitations. Firstly, some parameters including the latent period and rate of infection among those in contact with a person with infection were obtained from the modelling studies of COVID-19 [6, 11, 12], and consequently may revise the results. Secondly, we used a deterministic model, and can’t evaluate …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.15.20023234: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study had several limitations. Firstly, some parameters including the latent period and rate of infection among those in contact with a person with infection were obtained from the modelling studies of COVID-19 [6, 11, 12], and consequently may revise the results. Secondly, we used a deterministic model, and can’t evaluate the uncertainty of these estimates, which is an inherent feature and missed under current analysis. However, allowing a search of different plausible values of these parameters through this model simulation approach, ensures the reliable parameter estimates and able to mimic the future dynamics of the number of infected individuals, which is much smaller than the total population [13]. Thirdly, we did not consider transmission that occurred before symptom onset and did not account for subclinical infection.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.
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