Prolonged Dry Periods Associated with Riparian Vegetation Growth and Channel Simplification

Climate change is impacting rivers worldwide, with a reduction in normal flow conditions in temperate regions like Poland. Such changes might have a significant influence on riparian vegetation and channel planform dynamics. To better understand how these changes impact the river morphology, this research focuses on a 250 km-long reach of the Polish Vistula River and investigates variations of monthly maximum discharges and vegetation conditions over the period 1984–2023 by means of Landsat satellite images. These satellite data were handled via Google Earth Engine, looking at a common index such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, considered as a proxy of vegetation coverage variations. Results point out an increase in the median NDVI over the study area from 0.2 in 1984 to 0.3 in 2023, connected with a reduction of monthly discharge from around 920 m3/s to 880 m3/s. This suggests that changes in flow discharge are associated with a process of riparian vegetation growth, leading to a reduction of planform and bars dynamics and closure of secondary channels (i.e., oversimplification). This is particularly evident over the last couple of decades, during which water availability has decreased significantly, as more humid years in the middle of the study period are now no longer existing, with an observed decrease in the maximum monthly discharge during the last 20 years, likely connected with a more severe impact of climate change. This reduction in flooding events allows more time for vegetation to establish on river bars and banks, eventually creating new islands and causing the observed oversimplification of the active channel. In summary, using the Vistula River as an exemplary case study, this research suggests that prolonged dry periods, more common in recent decades due to climate change, might impact large rivers located in temperate climates, favouring the development of vegetation on exposed sandbars, eventually resulting in a less dynamic active channel.