A Metapopulation Model to Assess Water Management Impacts on the Threatened Australian Lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri

The Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri, is one of the world’s oldest vertebrate lineages, with a slow life-history and threatened status, requiring immediate conservation efforts. The main threats to lungfish populations are degradation and availability of key macrophyte habitats, water regulation and flow modification. As this long-lived species (at least 77 years) has delayed maturity (mature at 10 years), field monitoring alone will not be enough to inform the challenge of ensuring sustainable populations. A stochastic metapopulation model was developed for the Burnett River (Southeast Queensland, Australia), an important habitat for the lungfish that is a highly regulated system with extensive water infrastructure. The model consists of three interacting populations, where the ecology and biology of the species were translated into an 80-year-class population projection matrix for each population, each with post-development streamflow, habitat and movement rules. The model highlights the longer-term interaction between dams and stream flows on habitat availability and subsequent recruitment. Through a pre-development streamflow, we quantify the impact of high regulation and development on the lungfish population in the Burnett River: a minor decline in the upstream population (e.g., 9.8% decline), a large decline in the middle population (64.2% decline), virtually no change in the downstream population (e.g., 1.2% decline) and a moderate decline in the overall metapopulation (e.g., 22.3% decline). The loss of spawning and feeding habitat remains the main reason for population decline, with implications that the loss will lead to greater pressure on remaining downstream habitat due to combined flow and dam effects and, in turn, to extended periods of recovery of spawning habitat. Our modeling approach substantially advances conservation management of this species, as it can be adapted to suit other populations in other river systems and used to test sensitivity to recovery actions.