Government Restriction Efficiency on Curbing COVID-19 Pandemic Transmission in Western Europe
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Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO)-confirmed pandemic (March 2020) of the new Coronavirus 2 severe acute respiratory syndrome infection (SARS-CoV-2) reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 (first reported cases), then spread to Italy and successively around the world. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the restrictions implemented by different governments from a statistical point of view. We quantitatively evaluated how restrictions influenced the temporal evolution of the distribution of the weekly number of hospitalized patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) for different countries that applied different levels of restrictions, which can be summarized with the average stringency index, a synthetic index that represents a metric for quantifying the severity of the restrictions applied. We found that the stringency index is strongly correlated with the distribution skewness, while standard deviation and kurtosis are poorly and moderately influenced. Furthermore, we compared the values of the skewness of the distribution of hospitalized patients during several pre-pandemic influenza outbreaks in Italy (data not available for other countries). Analysis shows that for normal flu, there is a substantial difference in skewness (as much as 70%) in the distribution with respect to the first COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, where social restrictions were applied. This large difference highlights that the restrictions implemented modify the symmetry of the peak of the distribution of the hospitalized patient in the ICU. Therefore, skewness can be used as a valid indicator to assess whether restriction has any effect on pandemic transmission and can be used as a support for decision makers.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.02.28.22271636: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:As stated above, a limitation of this study is given by the fact that we assume that the normal flu and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak have the same trend. As a future perspective, it should be investigated the possibility to link the skewness to the number of ICU hospitalized patients, in order to assess the restriction effectiveness in …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.02.28.22271636: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:As stated above, a limitation of this study is given by the fact that we assume that the normal flu and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak have the same trend. As a future perspective, it should be investigated the possibility to link the skewness to the number of ICU hospitalized patients, in order to assess the restriction effectiveness in saving lives.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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