Forecast of Omicron Wave Time Evolution
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Abstract
The temporal evolution of the omicron wave in different countries is predicted, upon adopting an early doubling time of three days for the rate of new infections with this mutant. The forecast is based on the susceptible–infectious–recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic compartment model with a constant stationary ratio k=μ(t)/a(t) between the infection (a(t)) and recovery (μ(t)) rates. The assumed fixed early doubling time then uniquely relates the initial infection rate a0 to the ratio k; this way the full temporal evolution of the omicron wave is determined here. Three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, intermediate) and the resulting pandemic parameters are considered for 12 different countries. Parameters include the total number of infected persons, the maximum rate of new infections, the peak time and the maximum 7-day incidence per 100,000 persons. The monitored data from Great Britain underwent a clear maximum SDI of 1865 on 7 January 2022. This maximum is a factor 5.0 smaller than our predicted value in the optimistic case and may indicate a dark number of omicron infections of 5.0 in Great Britain. For Germany we predict peak times of the omicron wave ranging from 32 to 38 and 45 days after the start of the omicron wave in the optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenario, respectively, with corresponding maximum SDI values of 7090, 13,263 and 28,911. Adopting 1 January 2022 as the starting date our predictions imply the maximum of the omicron wave to be reached between 1 February and 15 February 2022. Rather similar values are predicted for Switzerland. Due to an order of magnitude smaller omicron hospitalization rate, in concert with a high percentage of vaccinated and boosted population, the German health system can cope with a maximum omicron SDI value of 2800 which is about a factor 2.5 smaller than the corresponding value 7090 for the optimistic case. By either reducing the duration of intensive care during peak time, and/or by making use of the nonuniform spread of the omicron wave across Germany, it seems that the German health system can barely cope with the omicron wave and thus avoid triage decisions. The reduced omicron hospitalization rate also causes significantly smaller mortality rates compared to the earlier mutants in Germany. Within the optimistic scenario, we predict 7445 fatalities and a maximum number of 418 deaths/day due to omicron. These numbers range in order of magnitude below the ones known from the beta mutant.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.16.22269161: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter:…
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.16.22269161: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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