A General Computational Framework for COVID-19 Modelling with Applications to Testing Varied Interventions in Education Environments

  1. Joshua W. Moore
  2. Zechariah Lau
  3. Katerina Kaouri
  4. Trevor C. Dale
  5. Thomas E. Woolley

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Abstract

We construct a spatially-compartmental, individual-based model of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor spaces. The model can be used to predict the infection rates in a variety of locations when various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are introduced. Tasked by the Welsh Government, we apply the model to secondary schools and to Further and Higher Education environments. Specifically, we consider student populations mixing in a classroom and in halls of residence. We focus on assessing the potential efficacy of Lateral Flow Devices (LFDs) when used in broad-based screens for asymptomatic infection or in ‘test-to-release’ scenarios in which individuals who have been exposed to infection are released from isolation after a negative LFD result. LFDs are also compared to other NPIs; we find that, although LFD testing can be used to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is more effective to invest in personal protective equipment, e.g., masks, and in increasing ventilation quality. In addition, we provide an open-access and user-friendly online applet that simulates the model, complete with user tutorials to encourage the use of the model to aid educational policy decisions as input infection data becomes available.

Article activity feed

  1. Version published to 10.3390/covid1040055
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.08.21253122v2 on medRxiv
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.08.21253122: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.08.21253122v1 on medRxiv