Uncertainty and Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Membrane Biogas Upgrading Process Using the COCO Simulator

Process designs based on deterministic simulations without considering parameter uncertainty or variability have a high probability of failing to meet specifications. In this work, uncertainty and global sensitivity analyses were applied to a biogas upgrading membrane process implemented in the COCO simulator (CAPE-OPEN to CAPE-OPEN), considering both controlled and non-controlled scenarios. A user-defined model code was developed to simulate gas separation membrane stages, and a preliminary study of membrane parameter uncertainty was performed. In addition, a unit generating combinations of uncertainty factors was developed to interact with the simulator’s parametric tool. Global sensitivity analyses were carried out using the Morris method and Sobol’ indices obtained by Polynomial Chaos Expansion, allowing for the ranking and quantification of the influence of feed variability and membrane parameter uncertainty on product streams and process utilities. Results showed that when feed variability was ±10%, its effect exceeded the uncertainty of the membrane parameters. Uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo propagation method provided lower and upper tolerance limits for the main responses. Relative gaps between tolerance limits and mean product flows were 8–9% at a feed variability of 5% and 14–18% at a feed variability of 10%, while relative tolerance gaps resulting from composition were smaller (0.4–1.2%).