Unreported Cases for Age Dependent COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan
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Abstract
We investigate the age structured data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan. We consider a mathematical model for the epidemic with unreported infectious patient with and without age structure. In particular, we build a new mathematical model and a new computational method to fit the data by using age classes dependent exponential growth at the early stage of the epidemic. This allows to take into account differences in the response of patients to the disease according to their age. This model also allows for a heterogeneous response of the population to the social distancing measures taken by the local government. We fit this model to the observed data and obtain a snapshot of the effective transmissions occurring inside the population at different times, which indicates where and among whom the disease propagates after the start of public mitigation measures.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.07.20093807: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources By fitting the cumulative age classes [0, 10[,[10, 20[, …and [90, 100[ between d1 and d2, for each age class j =1,… 10 we can find and We choose a starting time t0 ≤ d1 and we fix and we obtain
where
We assume that Where Therefore we obtain By assuming that the number of susceptible individuals remains constant we have
and
If we assume that the Uj(t) have the following form
then by substituting in (A.5) we obtain
The cumulative number of unreported cases
d1suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.07.20093807: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources By fitting the cumulative age classes [0, 10[,[10, 20[, …and [90, 100[ between d1 and d2, for each age class j =1,… 10 we can find and We choose a starting time t0 ≤ d1 and we fix and we obtain
where
We assume that Where Therefore we obtain By assuming that the number of susceptible individuals remains constant we have
and
If we assume that the Uj(t) have the following form
then by substituting in (A.5) we obtain
The cumulative number of unreported cases
d1suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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