Utility of Clustering in Mortality Risk Stratification in Pulmonary Hypertension

Background: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a condition characterized by increased pressure in the pulmonary arteries with poor prognosis and, therefore, an optimal management is necessary. The study’s aim was to search for PH phenotypes and develop a predictive model of five-year mortality using machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods: This multicenter study was conducted on 122 PH patients. Clinical and demographic data were collected and then used to identify phenotypes through clustering. Subsequently, a predictive model was performed by different ML algorithms. Results: Three PH clusters were identified: Cluster 1 (mean age 68.57 ± 10.54) includes 57% females, 69% from non-respiratory PH groups, and better cardiac (NYHA class 2.61 ± 0.84) and respiratory function (FEV1% 78.78 ± 21.54); Cluster 2 includes 50% females, mean age of 71.36 ± 8.32 years, 44% from PH group 3, worse respiratory function (FEV 1% 68.12 ± 10.20); intermediate cardiac function (NYHA class 3.18 ± 0.49) and significantly higher mortality (75%); Cluster 3 represents the youngest cluster (mean age 61.11 ± 13.50) with 65% males, 81% from non-respiratory PH groups, intermediate respiratory function (FEV1% 70.51 ± 17.91) and worse cardiac performance (NYHA class 3.22 ± 0.58). After testing ML models, logistic regression showed the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.835 and accuracy = 0.744) and identified three mortality-risk factors: age, NYHA class, and number of medications taken. Conclusions: The results suggest that the integration of ML into clinical practice can improve risk stratification to optimize treatment strategies and improve outcomes for PH patients.