How Frequent Is an Extraordinary Episode of Precipitation? Spatially Integrated Frequency in the Júcar–Turia System (Spain)

An extraordinary episode is a torrential rainfall event that produces significant societal impacts, which poses a major natural hazard in the western Mediterranean, particularly along the Valencia coast. This study evaluates the feasibility and added value of an explicitly spatial approach for estimating return periods of extraordinary precipitation in the Júcar and Turia basins, moving beyond traditional point-based or micro-catchment analyses. Our methodology consists of progressive spatial aggregation of time series within a basin to better estimate return periods of exceeding specific catastrophic rainfall thresholds. This technique allows us to compare 10 min rainfall data of a reference station (e.g., Turís, València, 29 October 2024 catastrophe) with long-term annual maxima from 98 stations. Temporal structure is characterized using the fractal–intermittency n-index, while tail behavior is modeled using several extreme-value distributions (Gumbel, GEV, Weibull, Gamma, and Pareto) and guided by empirical errors. Results show that n≈0.3–0.4 is consistent for extreme rainfall, while return periods systematically decrease as stations are added, stabilizing with about 15–20 stations, once the relevant spatial heterogeneity is sampled. Specifically, the probability of exceeding extraordinary thresholds is between 3 and 10 times higher for the areal than the point approach, so recurrence of a catastrophe would be once a few decades rather than centuries. Overall, the results demonstrate that spatially integrated return-period estimation is operational, physically consistent, and better suited for basin-scale risk assessment than purely point-based approaches, providing a relevant baseline for interpreting recent catastrophic events in the context of ongoing climatic warming in the Mediterranean region.