Evaluation of the Spatio-Temporal Variation of Extreme Cold Events in Southeastern Europe Using an Intensity–Duration Model and Excess Cold Factor Severity Index

Recent studies have revealed a rise in extreme heat events worldwide, while extreme cold has reduced. It is highly likely that human-induced climate forcing will double the risk of exceptionally severe heat waves by the end of the century. Although extreme heat is expected to have more significant socioeconomic impacts than cold extremes, the latter contributes to a wide range of adverse effects on the environment, various economic sectors and human health. The present research aims to evaluate the contemporary spatio-temporal variations of extreme cold events in Southeastern Europe through the intensity–duration cold spell model developed for quantitative assessment of cold weather in Bulgaria. We defined and analyzed the suitability of three indicators, based on minimum temperature thresholds, for evaluating the severity of extreme cold in the period 1961–2020 across the Köppen–Geiger climate zones, using daily temperature data from 70 selected meteorological stations. All indicators show a statistically significant decreasing trend for the Cfb and Dfb climate zones. The proposed intensity–duration model demonstrated good spatio-temporal conformity with the Excess Cold Factor (ECF) severity index in classifying and estimating the severity of extreme cold events on a yearly basis.