Triggering of an Epidemic Outbreak via Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Bio-Aerosols—Application to a Hypothetical Case for COVID-19

  1. Bertrand R. Rowe
  2. J. Brian A. Mitchell
  3. André Canosa
  4. Roland Draxler

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Abstract

In the present work, we investigate the possibility that long-range airborne transport of infectious aerosols could initiate an epidemic outbreak at distances downwind beyond one hundred kilometers. For this, we have developed a simple atmospheric transport box model, which, for a hypothetical case of a COVID-19 outbreak, was compared to a more sophisticated three-dimensional transport-dispersion model (HYSPLIT) calculation. Coupled with an extended Wells–Riley description of infection airborne spread, it shows that the very low probability of outdoor transmission can be compensated for by high numbers and densities of infected and susceptible people in the source upwind and in the target downwind, respectively, such as occur in large urban areas. This may result in the creation of a few primary cases. It is worth pointing out that the probability of being infected remains very small at the individual level. Therefore, this process alone, which depends on population sizes, geography, seasonality, and meteorology, can only “trigger” an epidemic, which could then spread via the standard infection routes.

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  1. Version published to 10.3390/atmos14061050
  2. Version published to 10.20944/preprints202305.0888.v1
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.16.22272493: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2022.03.16.22272493 on medRxiv