Personalized-dose Covid-19 vaccination in a wave of virus Variants of Concern: Trading individual efficacy for societal benefit
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Abstract
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Limited vaccine supplies and virus variants of concern threaten to prolong the COVID-19 pandemic. The elderly dies more frequently, but the younger drives disease transmission. Here, we explore strategies that trade individual vaccine efficacy for increased numbers of vaccinations by personalized vaccine dosing during the onset of a wave of virus variants of concern. The model incorporates U.S. demographic and epidemic data and vaccine characteristics. We find that broad, personalized-dose vaccination, trading individual efficacy for vaccination speed and societal benefit, mitigates an infection wave of highly infectious variants of concern better and overcomes the pandemic faster than conventional “elderly first” strategies. This strategy implies that on a global scale, tailoring vaccine dose and vaccination strategy to the pandemic phase and demographic characteristics may have significant potential for minimizing deaths and quickly mastering the pandemic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.30.21250834: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Study limitations include assumptions that stem from phase I and II studies of limited size, and the extrapolation on clinical efficacy based on comparing measured immune titers. Case rate and case fatality rate are not ideal parameters during the course of a pandemic and mortality rates are phase-shifted to case rates; however, the substantial testing rates and the stagnation at high level of case rates and mortality in December/January 202147 …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.30.21250834: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Study limitations include assumptions that stem from phase I and II studies of limited size, and the extrapolation on clinical efficacy based on comparing measured immune titers. Case rate and case fatality rate are not ideal parameters during the course of a pandemic and mortality rates are phase-shifted to case rates; however, the substantial testing rates and the stagnation at high level of case rates and mortality in December/January 202147 render their use acceptable, as information on true infection rates is still sparse. Preferably, the findings of this study are scrutinized by well-designed clinical trials although such trials would also need to be performed at “warp speed”. The most straightforward way is to allocate cities within a country to the personalized-dose approach proposed and use daily cases, deaths, hospital and ICU occupancy as continuously available endpoints, permitting rapid policy adaptation when indicated. The “off-label use” character of this approach calls for acquiring suited permits for its clinical application.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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