Forecasting Ecological and Economic Impacts of Red Tides in the Southwest Florida Coast

Red tides, a form of Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB), pose a severe threat to Florida’s wildlife, fisheries, and coastal communities. These blooms release harmful brevetoxins, which kill marine life and devastate fisheries, diminishing both yields and revenue. Consequently, coastal residents that rely on fishing and tourism are also detrimentally affected by red tides. With rising global temperatures, red tides are expected to become more frequent and severe, further damaging Florida’s marine ecosystem and local economy. This paper leveraged advanced predictive modeling to analyze red tide patterns, assess risks, and propose mitigation strategies to combat this growing issue. Using an LSTM model, this study predicts that Karenia brevis cell counts will increase by 4.5% annually, leading to substantial economic losses to the fishing industry. By 2030, it is estimated that (1) the total pounds lost for all fish will be 71,318,313 pounds and (2) the total fish stock value to decrease by $282, 790, 208. This paper also used a burden ratio model to quantify how red tide-related impacts are distributed across income groups based on differences in exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Using this model, it was found that by 2030, lower-income communities—who face higher job disruption, limited healthcare access, and greater dependence on affordable seafood—will bear 60% of the red tide-related economic losses, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.