Electric Vehicle Fleet Penetration and Air Pollution Mortality in Europe

The transition to electric vehicles is widely promoted as contributing to the reduction of urban air pollution and climate change. This study examines the correlation between electric vehicle fleet penetration and premature deaths from air pollution (PM2.5 exposure) across 28 European countries. Using 2023-2024 data on actual vehicle fleet composition, we find a statistically significant negative correlation (r = -0.465, p = 0.013). Nordic countries show high EV penetration (Norway 28%, Denmark 12.1%) with low mortality rates (6.6 and 18.3 deaths per 100,000 respectively), while Eastern European countries exhibit <1% EV penetration with 70-145 deaths per 100,000. This result was expected for several reasons, the main one being that car exhaust is a major factor in air pollution in urban areas. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that higher electric vehicle fleet penetration is associated with lower air pollution mortality, even though there are other factors that influence the trend.