The Economic Effects of the Montgomery Bus Boycott

While the Montgomery Bus Boycott is widely celebrated, its economic impact on Montgomery has been understudied. This paper provides one of the first quantitative analyses of the fiscal consequences of the Montgomery Bus Boycott. Using archival data from the City of Montgomery and ARIMA based time series forecasting, the study estimates counterfactual revenue and expenditure paths to reexamine the boycott with two goals: (1) determining whether the boycott affected the city’s public finances, and (2) forecasting the probability that city revenues would have fallen below expenditures had existing trends continued. Results reveal that although the city-maintained surpluses throughout the forecasted period, the gap between revenues and expenditures narrowed steadily signaling growing fiscal strain. This economic pressure stemmed largely from the city's “get tough” response, which increased spending on police, fire, and public services. These findings reframe the boycott not only as a moral and legal turning point, but also as a form of economic resistance with measurable budgetary impact. The study contributes a new lens for understanding how grassroots movements can reshape public finance and municipal governance, suggesting that protest can be used as an economic tool to effect political change.