Perceptions of the Consequences of War in Ukraine: Exploring a Russian Paradox

This study examines public perceptions of the Ukraine war, focusing on Russian attitudes toward its economic and political impacts compared to other countries. Drawing on theoretical perspectives such as the Spiral of Silence and collective action constraints, this research explores how sociopolitical context shapes public opinion in an authoritarian country. Using cross-national survey data, the analysis reveals significant differences in war-related assessments. Despite severe economic repercussions, many Russians report optimism about the war’s effects, especially on economic growth, diverging from the prevalent concerns in neighboring nations. Key factors such as gender, education, region of residence, institutional trust, and media consumption explain the heterogeneity in these perceptions. The findings underscore the role of individual characteristics, regional contexts, and institutional trust in sustaining public support for conflict in complex sociopolitical environments, contributing to broader discussions on national contexts and public attitudes in wartime.