Heat, Rainfall, and Child Relocation in South Asia

Climate change is reshaping economies, health, and family systems. One longstanding yet understudied family strategy is child relocation; the practice of sending children to reside with kin or social networks, a widespread practice across the Global South. Despite its demographic significance, no prior research has examined patterns of child relocation in South Asia, nor whether climate variability shapes these arrangements in the region. This study links nationally representative survey data from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan to high-resolution temperature and precipitation records to estimate associations between climate anomalies and mother–child separation. Results show that higher temperature and precipitation anomalies are associated with a lower overall likelihood of child relocation. Effects are strongly gendered. Following abnormally wet conditions, relocation decreases for boys, but increases for girls. In households with a lower proportion of girls, high precipitation is associated with greater relocation, suggesting missing girls. Higher maternal education mitigates relocation during periods of extreme heat, indicating a protective role of maternal resources in contexts of heat stress. By identifying child relocation as a climate-sensitive household coping strategy, this study provides a foundation for culturally grounded research on parental agency, constraint, child mobility, and gender inequality in the context of environmental transformation.