Bayesian phylogenetic analyses cannot be used to test hypotheses about the evolution of large-scale complex societies during the Holocene
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Opie and Atkinson (DOI: 10.1038/s41562-025-02365-5) used Bayesian phylogenetic analysis (BPA) to test several hypotheses about mechanisms responsible for the emergence of states in human history by mapping trait data from 868 cultures worldwide onto a language tree representing the relationships between cultures globally. In this critique I argue that the BPA is incapable of identifying causal mechanisms responsible for state formation during the Holocene and thus the authors' conclusions are unwarranted.
