Measuring the impact of Sure Start expansion in Northern Ireland on health and social care: Early Results

Early years interventions have the potential to prevent later life inequalities. Sure Start in Northern Ireland is a place-based early years health and education programme that offers services to some of the most disadvantaged areas in the country. Families with children under four residing in these areas are eligible to access Sure Start services. This study uses a naturally occurring experiment with a Regression Discontinuity (RD) Design and administrative data to measure the impact of Sure Start on health and social services as well as child and maternal health at birth. We find no evidence of an impact on health outcomes at birth. However, we do find that Sure Start reduces the rate of child social services referrals and assessments for a child in need as well as the number of children who become a ‘child in need’. These reductions are most substantial in the first five years of life with no evidence of a rebound after school entry. We also find some evidence these effects are higher for mothers aged 21 and younger. Due to study limitations, the magnitude of these effects are imprecisely measured and we suggest further avenues for future research.