Beyond Decline: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Social-Ecological Systems Analysis to UK Grassroots Music Venues, 2014–2025

The UK grassroots music venue sector contracted by 16% between 2014 and 2025 (960 to 810 venues), with closures accelerating to 125 venues in 2023 alone. Existing research fragments this crisis across economic analyses, policy inquiries, and single-mechanism explanations (gentrification, licensing, financing), obscuring potential systemic dynamics. This paper explores whether Ostrom’s Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework—developed for natural resource commons—can provide integrative analytical capacity for cultural infrastructure challenges. Drawing on longitudinal data from Music Venue Trust annual reports (2014–2025), parliamentary inquiries, and case studies, I operationalize the SES framework’s core subsystems (resource systems, resource units, governance structures, actors) for the music venue context. The analysis suggests two potentially reinforcing feedback mechanisms: (1) a gentrification dynamic where venues create cultural value captured by property owners, leading to displacement; and (2) a touring circuit collapse where venue loss reduces route viability, accelerating further closures. Preliminary threshold estimates suggest regional touring viability may collapse below approximately 700 venues, though substantial uncertainty surrounds these projections. Governance analysis using Ostrom’s design principles reveals critical apparent failures in proportional benefit-sharing (venues subsidize £162 million annually while receiving negligible returns from the £8 billion upper-tier industry) and rights recognition (93% operate as short-term tenants). Scenario modeling—calibrated to available data but subject to significant parameter uncertainty—suggests that financial interventions alone may delay but not reverse decline, while combined financial and structural reforms could potentially shift trajectories toward recovery. This paper makes three contributions: (1) it demonstrates that SES framework application to cultural systems is feasible and generates potentially policy-relevant insights; (2) it identifies significant methodological challenges requiring resolution before claiming validation, including measurement reliability, counterfactual reasoning, and stakeholder perspective integration; and (3) it provides strategic guidance for UK venue policy while acknowledging substantial uncertainty in quantitative projections. The analysis illustrates both the framework’s promise and the methodological development needed for rigorous cultural ecosystem research.