Plurality in transformative change: three pathways toward nature-positive Europe(s)

The accelerating decline of biodiversity requires transformative change to protect nature and society, which requires innovative actions and governance strategies. This paper focuses on developing diverse transformative pathways for biodiversity in Europe and advancing methodologies for co-creating these pathways to inform such actions and governance strategies in a transformative and anticipatory manner. Three distinct pathways for a nature-positive Europe from 2024 to 2050 were co-created with 23 participants during a 2.5-day participatory foresight workshop and analysed to understand the main patterns of change. These pathways were backcasted using three desired visions based on the Nature Futures Framework as a starting point. Post-workshop interviews with nine participants helped map their understanding of transformative change and its connection to the pathways. The analysis reveals distinct patterns within each pathway, despite shared elements such as governance changes and sectoral changes in biodiversity. The first pathway, called Dòigh Nàdair, emphasizes bottom-up transformation through community empowerment, focusing on biocultural principles and diverse sustainable alternatives across Europe. The second, NaturAll, combines top-down restrictive regulation with participatory approaches, centring on sufficiency principles. The third, Return to Nature, relies on expert-driven centralized governance and mainstreaming sustainable alternatives across Europe. Diverse understandings of transformative change among participants existed, ranging from reformist to revolutionary approaches. The methodological choices in the co-creation process led to convergence towards dominant frames within pathway groups, resulting in plurality between pathways but limited plurality within group outputs. The first pathway attracted those interested in radical ideas and creative imagination, the second drew a varied group, and the third appealed to those focused on practical and feasible solutions. The pathways demonstrate how diverse patterns of change and understandings of transformative change can result in a range of desired nature-positive futures, effectively turning concepts of transformative change into practical actions. The techniques used to create these pathways play a crucial role in shaping the results, necessitating intentional design that aligns with specific objectives. This highlights the importance of developing plural pathways to investigate multiple potential futures while preserving a strong sense of ambition and urgency for transformative action.